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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However the current field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still