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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.