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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."